I am watching for the potential of strong thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. A strong fall cold front will move through Central Texas and have plenty of warm and very humid air to interact with during that time. The Storm Prediction Center has us under a 5% risk for severe storms already, but that number could change as we get more data and move closer to Thursday.
Based on the latest weather information that I am seeing, it looks like severe damaging winds will be the biggest weather threat. This means we could get winds over 60 mph within some of these storms. The biggest and highest threat for severe weather will be northeast of us, over Oklahoma and Arkansas.
This graphic will likely be adjusted by Thursday morning. That is when I will have a better idea on the timing of the cold front. The cold front timing will be the major factor in determining our severe weather chances. Right now it looks like the cold front will move through during the early evening hours. That means we will have had plenty of time to warm into the mid 90s…factor in some very strong humidity…we are looking at a very unstable atmosphere.
Here is what FUTURETRAC is showing for Thursday and early Friday morning.
FUTURETRAC has the timing of our storms from 6PM Thursday through the early morning hours of Friday. Now the timing of this front could very easily change, but this is how it is looking right now.
Not only could we experience damaging winds, but we could also see frequent lightning, heavy rain, large hail and even an isolated tornado.
Here is the latest rainfall forecast.
It is only Tuesday so I will need to keep checking all the latest weather data as we get closer. I will also keep updating my weather blog. Make sure you tell your family and friends that they can check my blog for all the latest local weather information.
Meteorologist Patrick Crawford